"Predicting Elections: Child's Play!"
John Antonakis & Olaf Dalgas
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/323/5918/1183
Abstract:
In two experiments, children and adults rated pairs of faces from election races. Naïve adults judged a pair on competence; after playing a game, children chose who they would prefer to be captain of their boat. Children's (as well as adults') preferences accurately predicted actual election outcomes.
(Nod to KL)
1 comment:
Andrew Gelman had a bit of a rant on this a couple days ago. His main point: They call "accurately" getting things right roughly 70 percent of the time. Of course, you can get to 90% of so just using party and incumbency, so...
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